Market Commentary

Digital assets navigated a challenging macro backdrop in June, as geopolitical tensions, including a U.S. military strike in the Middle East and renewed tariff threats, kept risk sentiment fragile.

• Bitcoin (BTC) proved resilient, finishing June up 0.52%, lifting its H1 2025 gain to 17.92%.
• Ethereum (ETH) dipped 1.54% yet held above $2,500, with cumulative net inflows to U.S. spot Ether ETFs nearing $4 billion.
• Solana (SOL) fell 1.02%, extending its YTD decline to 18.1%.

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1. Regulation Drives Market Sentiment

Policy headlines took center stage:

• The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, establishing the first U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework.
• Société Générale launched a dollar-pegged stablecoin on both Ethereum and Solana networks.
• JPMorgan introduced the JPMD token on Base, targeting institutional clients.
• Walmart and Amazon confirmed in-house stablecoin experiments.
• Guggenheim issued tokenized commercial paper via the XRP Ledger, while Ripple officially ended its SEC litigation, removing a multi-year overhang.

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2. Institutional Momentum Remains Strong

Despite macro uncertainty, institutional interest accelerated:

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to surpass $1 trillion in cumulative trading volume in under 18 months.
• Global crypto funds brought in $1.2 billion in fresh capital as investors sought diversification.
• BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust continued to record sustained inflows.
• Circle reached an all-time high share price, supported by a resurgence in its Ethereum-based treasury holdings.

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July 2025 Market Outlook: ETFs, IPOs, and Global Regulation

1. Seasonal Strength and ETF Catalysts

Historically, July has been a bullish month for cryptocurrencies, and current sentiment supports this pattern.

• A firm start is expected across major crypto markets, although profit-taking may curb momentum toward month-end.
• The next wave of altcoin spot ETFs is under review, with Solana, XRP, and Litecoin topping the approval watchlist.
• Successful ETF launches would broaden institutional access and shift flows beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

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2. Equity Markets & Crypto Convergence

The equity sector is showing increasing crypto alignment:

• Circle’s IPO highlighted strong investor demand for crypto-native firms.
• A robust IPO pipeline is projected for Q4 2025, as traditional exchanges pursue higher-growth assets.

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3. Global Stablecoin Race Heats Up

The global regulatory race is intensifying:

• Hong Kong will launch its stablecoin licensing regime in August.
• South Korea’s top bank filed trademarks for a consortium-backed stablecoin.
• Hong Kong is also crafting tokenisation frameworks for real-world assets (RWAs) and broader crypto licensing.

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These developments, in tandem with the U.S. GENIUS Act, signal a formalizing regulatory landscape that will drive mainstream adoption in H2 2025.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

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