FiCAS Selected Crypto Assets ETI

The Iran conflict remains the single dominant macro catalyst for crypto into April. The initial six-week estimate points to mid-month as the first meaningful inflection point, but markets are already treating the oil channel as the key transmission mechanism. With crude holding above $100, inflation expectations can re-tighten financial conditions and keep risk assets capped even if crypto-specific fundamentals are stable.

From a policy perspective, the market-structure path is still blocked. The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, with the stablecoin yield question as the main fault line and traditional banks pushing back due to deposit outflow risk. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated the bill is unlikely to move before April 2026, which leaves regulatory clarity as a Q2 story at best rather than an immediate tailwind.

Two crypto-native themes are worth tracking. First, OP_NET’s “SlowFi” launch on Bitcoin mainnet aims to enable native smart contracts and DeFi-style utility on Layer 1 without bridges. It could broaden Bitcoin’s on-chain use cases, but the market will likely wait for clear adoption before repricing the story. Second, the post-quantum debate is resurfacing as new research brings timelines forward and highlights potential attack vectors. This is not a near-term alarm, but it increases the premium on credible post-quantum roadmaps and coordinated upgrades across major networks.