FiCAS Selected Crypto Assets ETI

The next Fed decision arrives in September. Between now and then, jobs data and inflation prints will guide a Fed that is intent on protecting its dual mandate. Our base case is for policy to stay restrictive near term, with the door open to modest cuts later in Q4 if disinflation resumes. A pivot to easier policy would be a meaningful tailwind for altcoins and could extend the year-end rally, but the timing remains data dependent.

For the coming months, we see three catalysts shaping price action in higher-beta tokens: potential approval of additional single-name spot ETFs by the SEC; a high likelihood that staking is incorporated into ETF structures once rules are clarified; and a gradual rotation of institutional capital beyond Bitcoin and Ether as compliance rails mature. Stablecoin balances continue to build, providing dry powder for risk when conditions improve.
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The race to institutionalize crypto is accelerating. Major financial firms are piloting blockchain rails for money market funds, and post-GENIUS Act we expect large corporates and banks to revive stablecoin initiatives. Several big technology and banking names are already exploring issuance and settlement use cases. Together, these developments point to deeper market infrastructure and broader participation into year-end, while policy, liquidity, and headline risks warrant disciplined positioning.